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Rare earth market prediction in October

Sep 27, 2018      Source:ruidow

Keywords:rare earth

On September 26, the rare earth oxide prices were in a dilemma, and the downstream of the NdPr products were not sustainable. During the two festivals, the stability is more difficult to support, and the scope of the small downward adjustment is widening. When it comes to the next quarter, the optimism is slightly to maintain.

As of the recent days, NdPr oxide was transacted at RMB 320,000-323,000/t, and the turnover of NdPr metal has reached RMB 408,000-412,000/t. Relative to the price of raw ore, the NdPr price once again touched the edge of deficit, but the cost did not fully support the elastic market. Due to the competition of the transaction, the sale range of the price was still spreading.

The turnover of Dy oxide was RMB 1.148-1.15 million /t, and the turnover of Tb oxide was RMB 2.92 million/t. The transaction price tended to be low. It is reported that the spot price of Dy oxide in the Ganzhou area is difficult to break through the low price.

Based on the procurement strategy of different magnetic material manufacturers, the current demand analysis is as follows: most of them chose to purchase half-month stocks before the Mid-Autumn Festival to avoid logistics shortages, and some also continued to take 25th of the month as the regular stocking period of the next month, so this week there is still some purchase space, and it is consistent with metal manufacturers’ feedback: in the past two days, the inquiry and the transaction are all comparable to the Mid-Autumn Festival. The author believes that with the release of the remaining demand, this week's decline will not be too high.

As for the replenishment expectation after China’s golden week holiday (1th-7th of October), the author predicts that the DyFe products with relatively tight inventory in the current market may be rewarded, and the NdPr products are not expected to be positive. It is reported that in the medium and large-scale magnetic material manufacturers, the future operating rate will remain tepid except for several of them. In particular, some industry insiders expect that the bottleneck of upstream and downstream transactions will run through the whole of October, but the overall adjustment will not be large. After all, the supply of raw ore will shrink in the next quarter, and the overcapacity in the upstream will be further alleviated, and the stability will be more solid.

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